Syrian Civil War 2.0 ( Predicting the Future )

 The removal of Bashar al-Assad from power would not stabilize the Middle East; instead, it could plunge the region into deeper chaos and serve the strategic interests of Israel and other external powers. Here’s how the situation might evolve, incorporating an international relations (IR) perspective:

1. Israel’s Strategic Gains and Long-Term Goals

From an IR perspective, Israel’s actions would align with its offensive realist approach, aiming to maximize its security and regional dominance.

Control over Golan Heights: By fully annexing the Golan Heights, Israel would secure its borders and gain access to vital water resources, further solidifying its territorial advantage.

Weakening Hezbollah: Israel would exploit Syria's chaos to disrupt Hezbollah’s supply lines from Iran via Syria. With Hezbollah isolated, Israel could intensify its military actions in Lebanon.

Pressure on Lebanon: Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah-controlled areas in Lebanon would highlight the Lebanese government’s inability to respond effectively. Given Lebanon’s current political and economic crisis, the government would likely distance itself from Hezbollah under international pressure, weakening the group’s influence domestically.

2. Syria’s Fragmentation

The fall of Assad would shatter the central authority in Syria, leading to a failed state scenario—a condition IR scholars like Barry Buzan associate with heightened insecurity:

• Rise of Multiple Factions: Groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would dominate parts of Syria, using their proxy alliances with the West to counter Turkey and Iran.

• Expansion of Extremism: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an extremist group, would establish strongholds and fill the vacuum left by Assad, much like ISIS did in 2014. This would worsen regional instability and create challenges for all actors involved.

3. Turkey’s Offensive Against the Kurds

Turkey, driven by its security dilemma regarding Kurdish autonomy, would intensify military operations in Kurdish-controlled areas. This would not only complicate relations with the U.S., a supporter of the SDF, but also strain Turkey’s ties with Russia and Iran.

4. Iran’s Resilience

Iran, a revisionist power in the region, would focus on re-establishing its supply routes to Hezbollah and preserving its strategic depth. However, with Syria fragmented and Assad gone, Iran’s influence would face significant challenges.

5. Russia’s Geopolitical Interests

Russia, following a realpolitik approach, would prioritize maintaining its military bases in Syria, such as in Tartus and Latakia, to secure its foothold in the Mediterranean. A fragmented Syria would force Russia to deepen its alliances with local factions to protect its strategic interests.

6. NATO and Western Influence

Western powers, including NATO, could covertly support groups like HTS to counterbalance Iran and Russia in the region, aligning with their containment strategy. This would mirror past patterns of supporting non-state actors to achieve geopolitical goals, even at the cost of long-term instability.

Israel’s Long-Term Strategy Against Hezbollah in Lebanon

Israel’s actions toward Hezbollah would be part of a broader strategy to weaken the group’s decades-long grip on Lebanon:

• Targeted Attacks: Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon are designed to erode the group’s military capacity while avoiding direct confrontation with the Lebanese state.

• Political Isolation: Israel could leverage its diplomatic ties with Western powers to push the Lebanese government to distance itself from Hezbollah. This could include conditions tied to international aid or economic relief for Lebanon.

• Fragmenting Lebanon: By weakening Hezbollah, Israel might inadvertently encourage further fragmentation within Lebanon, as sectarian divides deepen between pro-Hezbollah and anti-Hezbollah factions.

Conclusion

The removal of Assad would not resolve Syria’s or the region’s problems but exacerbate them. From an IR perspective, it would create a power vacuum that external actors like Israel, Iran, and Turkey would exploit for their interests. Israel’s strategic moves, particularly against Hezbollah, highlight its intention to emerge as the uncontested regional power, but at the cost of further destabilizing Lebanon and Syria. The region would remain a theater of proxy wars, shifting alliances, and unending conflict.